Sunday, December 25, 2016

Fact File – VI (Modi Sarkar) 25h, Dec. 2016

All BJP spooks persons  describe this way

Modi’s Surgical Strikes –
First One :- On 28-29 Sep. 2016,  it was a commando raid to avenge the URI attack. Those who wish to know “what surgical strike is may see “Macmillan’s Dictionary”

Second One :- On 8th November -  Demonetization nearing 50 days, Nearly 90% of the people mostly low category are suffering. MSME units are crumpling down, unemployment is on the increase final result will be seen only after March 2017.

Third Surgical Strike : -  On 17th Dec. finely Modi Sarkar revealed the senior most appointments of the Army Chief Air Force chief and RAW and IB chief (delayed by 6 weeks).
A man third on the seniority list appointed the COAS. It is something like the appointment of General Bajwa as the new Pak Army Chief .

Procedure followed :- Conventionally three senior most Lt. Gen. names are forwarded by the MOD for consideration by the cabinet. Normally senior most is appointed. All are equally competent.

Once you reach the stage of Army Commander your competence levels are not in doubt this jump to make the third man in order of seniority has sent shock waves in the serving senior officers and retired fraternity (the veterans).
Modi’s spokes person have vehemently defended the decision by quoting some past incidents.

1983 :- Lt. Gen. S. K. Sinha was superseded and Lt. Gen. A. S. Vaidya was appointed. That is the time when Indira Gandhi was faced with the biggest challenge of her political career. Terrorism was mushrooming in Punjab & even some major general (Retd.)  rank officer’s had joined the movement. Lt. Gen. S. K. Sinha was defiant and did not share the line of approach to tackle the situation. Not going further in the detail - operation blue star had to be planned. Finely IG/ASV/Beant Singh had to loose their lives. Sunder Jee, Bul Bul Brar many more committed army officers led lives of prisoner in their houses till they perished.

1988 :- Appointment of Air Marshal S. K. Mehra was effected superseding M.M. Singh. MMS was superseded for his personal and social activities.

2014 :- Vice Admiral Shekhar Sinha (Foc-in-C WNC) was super seeded and Robin Dhawan was appointed the CNS. Admiral Joshi resigned on  moral ground taking responsibility of some sub marine accidents where some sailors were killed. Vice Admiral Sinha could not have been considered since accidents took place under his jurisdiction.

Unprecedented happening of the past :-
30 Dec. 1998 Admiral Bhagwat was dismissed and Vice Admiral Susheel Kumar was appointed a big lobby by S.K. for 6 months (A happening of the then NDA Govt.).

Gen. B.C. Joshi :- Died in office Lt. Gen. Shankar Roy Chaudhary was appointed the chief. He was Army Cdr. Training Command since he was the senior most.

F. H. Major :- A helicopter pilot was appointed the CAS on 31st March 2007 since he was the senior most. ACM Major did a commendable job.

The present appointment of Lt. Gen. Bipin Rawat is not in conformity with the norms. This can be easily construed to be highly politicized (may be UKD elections and the formidable role of NSA is in question).

This is the 3rd Surgical Strike. Rest for individuals to have their opinion.

Fact File – V (Note Bandi) 22nd, Dec. 2016

Narendra Modi - Demonetization or Demonization / jkgr ;k vkQr

Experts View :

Hero Worship Hurts Democracy

Back in 2005, a knowledgeable Gujarati journalist wrote of how ‘Narendra Modi thinks a detergent named development will wash away the memory of 2002”. While focusing on new infrastructure and industrial projects in his state, the then chief minister of Gujarat launched what the journalist called ‘a massive self publicity drive, publishing calendars, booklets and posters where his own photograph appeared prominently alongside words and statistics speaking of Gujarat’s achievement under his leadership. Modi has made sure that in Gujarat no one can escape noticing him, remarked the journalist.

Since May 2014, this self-publicity drive has been extended to the nation as a whole. In fact the process began before the general elections, when, through social media and his speeches when, Narendra Modi successfully projected himself as the sole and singular alternative to a (Visibly) corrupt UPA regime.

Hero-worship is not uncommon in India Indeed, we tend to excessively venerate high achievers in many fields. Consider the extraordinarily large and devoted fan following of Sachin Tendulkar and Lata Mangeshkar.

Nehru was her issuing a warning to himself. Twelve years later, in his remarkable last speech to the Constituent Assembly, BR Ambedkar issued a warning to all Indians, when, invoking John Stuart Mill, he asked them not ‘to lay their liberties at the feet of even a great man, or to trust him with powers which enable him to subvert their institutions’. There was’ nothing wrong’, said Ambedkar, ‘in being grateful to great men who have rendered life-long services to the country. But there are limits to gratefulness. He worried that in India, ‘Bhakti or what may be called the path of devotion or hero-worship plays a part in its politics unequalled in magnitude by the part it plays in the politics of any other country in the world. Bhakti in religion may be a road to the salvation of the soul. But in politics, Bhakti or hero-worship is a sure road to degradation and to eventual dictatorship.

Indian democracy is now too robust to be destroyed by a single individual. But it can still be severely damaged. That is why this personality cult of Narendra Modi must be challenged (and checked) before it goes much further.

Ram Chandra Guha

A Great Historian  

Fact File – IV (Note Bandi) 18th, Dec. 2016

Narendra Modi - Demonetization or Demonization / jkgr ;k vkQr

Experts View :

The Stink From The Banks – Cleaning up rot in banking system is Modi government biggest challenge on demonetization

Criticizing the Modi government’s great demonetization gamble as a “calamity” former finance minister P Chidambaram used a telling Hindi colloquialism: “khoda pahar aur nikli chuhiya (you dug up a mountain and only found a rat)”. It is till too early to write the final word on whether demonetization – in economic or political terms – eventually turns out to be just a ‘chuhiya’ or a ‘babbar-sher’ revo-Iutionary change in the way the hidden wellsprings of Indian society operate.

But in administrative terms it has laid bare the great rot in our banking system. Fixing this is not only the Modi government’s biggest challenge but also something which it should have factored in from the get-go.

Fist, only about 29.8% of the money that was withdrawn on 8 November and has so far been replaced in cash (Rs. 4.61 lakh crore between 8 November and 10 December in place of the approximately Rs 15.44 lakh crore that were demonetized.

Secondly, the sheer mumbers of seizures of contraband money in new notes show an endemic rot in the banking system.

Third demonetization has shown up a mirror to the relationship between the government’s finance and economic branches on one hand and RBI and banks on the other.

RBI and finance ministry have issued 51 communications so far on demonetization. We still don’t know what were the data sets, calculation and projections that went into the making of such a decision, at least the data should be put in the public domain.

With demonetization, Many of the old networks of patronage and cosy collusion have been reactivated – this time for a special commission

Nalin Mehta
An Economist 

Fact File – III (Note Bandi) 11th, Dec. 2016

Narendra Modi Demonetization or Demonization / jkgr ;k vkQr

Experts View :

We need a leader, not just a glorified mangerQuality to lead - Leadership is about ideas and dreams, making us understand why an issue deserves our attention, scolding us when we are insufficient, inspiring us to aim higher

Some year ago, during an election in Delhi, we were talking to a group of men and women in one of the northwestern slums. Who is a good leader, we asked A women, thirtyish and charmingly opinionated, said “Indira Gandhi”

“She knew who was poor and who was rich and what each of them needed. She would go from house to house asking after people. For her, everyone was equally important.”

Mahatma Gandhi used to do this , and so did Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Rajiv Gandhi.  But both Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh mostly stayed mum. In the early days of Modi there was a return to this tradition-we one again had a leader who was willing to engage with us at the level of ideas – it mattered less whether we agreed with him. Bu that quickly got lost in the need to defend partisan causes, and at this point, it is not clear that any one except his groupies are listening even when he has something important to say We need that back-we need a leader and not just a glorified manager.

Abhijeet Banerjee
International Professor, Economics

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Fact File –II (Note Bandi) 04th Dec., 2016

Narendra Modi Demonetization or Demonization / jkgr ;k vkQr

Experts View :
Narendra Modi takes a great leap backwards. Mao would approve
In 1958, Chairman Mao ordered that that all sparrows over China should be put to death. It was halled as a necessary step by a strong leader. Farmers were suffering because sparrows tended to eat their grain seeds. Thus began The Great Sparrow Campaign. A countless number of unintended consequences. Sparrows ate locusts, and once the balance in the ecosystem changed, locusts proliferated and destroyed China’s crops. There was famine, hunger, strvation: no less than 45 million people died in the three years following Mao’s orders At the start, Mao exhorted them to bear with the in-convenience. But then the pain piled up.

Narendra Modi’s demonetization old 1000 and 500 rupee notes is one such folly, a blunder in every imaginable way. It doesn’t achieve its intended purpose. And its unintended consequences could deyastate the lives of the poor and cripple our economy.

Corruption and black money are consequence of big government, of one set of individuals having discretionary powers over the actions of others. If Modi was serious about tacking black money, he’d bring about institutional changes that would take us towards the minimum government he had promised in his 2014 compaign. Instead, government keeps getting bigger, controlling more and more of our livers. More government = more corruption.

Apart from all the individual suffering, our economy is being eviscerated. Cash is integral to most of the economy Farmers are unable to sell perishable produce, to buy grains for the new harvest or to pay labourers. Transporters are unable to transport goods across distances. Commerce has shut down in many places, with small business going bust. In some places, the barter system is back, as if we’ve gone centuries back in time.

Even if implementation was perfect, this would be a historic blunder because social engineering never works and carries moral costs because of its unintended consequences.

Amit Verma – An economist

Fact File – I (Note Bandi) 1st Dec.2016

Narendra Modi Demonetization or Demonization / राहत या आफत 

Experts View :
At a time when populist nationalism is confusing ideological battle lines across the world, no nation is more confused than India. Politics here divides into camps for and against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and this is once again evident in the reaction to the demonetization plan. Ironically, Modi’s enemies on the left find no merit in this scheme to apparently soak the rich, and his supporters on the right see no reason to question this clumsy exercise of state power.
Like other low income countries India is cash dependent, but not out rageously so. Cash in circulation amounts to 12% of GDP, somewhat higher than the emerging world norm but not out of line with even countries like China and Thailand where the number is around 10% of GDP. The black economy is about a quarter the size of the formal economy. That is similar to low income peers like Indonesia, and in fact smaller than in higher per capita income nations like Mexico and Russia.
Modi also chose and odd moment to attack corruption, which appeared to be in retreat. On Transparency Internation al’s ranking of the most and least corrupt nations, India was getting worse until 2011, when it bottomed out at 95th, and lately it has rebounded to 76th. India currently ranks as less corrupt than average in its income group, ahead of peers like Pakistan and Vietnam. The least corrupt countries tend to be richest countries from Norway to Singapore.
There is also a better way to downsize the black economy, which Modi’s government tried but with underwhelming results. Earlier this year, it offered a tax amnesty and imposed a punitive tax of 45%. The result: Indians came forward to declare assets worth less than $10billion (around Rs. 64000cr).
Contrast that to Indonesia’s recent amnesty, which imposed a tax of just 4% and drew out $300 billion in hidden wealth – reportedly including $30 billion declared by a son of former dictator Suharto. Of course, such a move in India would not deliver an instant populist punch and would not deliver an instant populist punch and would entail the hard work of marketing the benefits to the masses.
It might be more satisfying to punish shady fortunes, but revenge is not a development strategy. Scrapping large bills may destroy some hidden wealth today, but the black economy will start regenerating itself tomorrow in the absence of deeper changes in the culture and institutions that foster it, which in turn is a function of a country’s per capita income. Only as a nation gets less poor do corruption, black money and the role of cash decline. There is no shortcut.
India will have to climb the development ladder one rung at a time. But for now, as economic growth slumps here, the message to other populists in the world is: be careful when draining the swamp.

Ruchir Sharma – A global investor