Random Thoughts 8

Random Thoughts

Poised To take Off

India must address demographic issues to fulfil its enormous potential
Population explosion a “Night-mare waiting to haunt us.

Such contradictions notwithstanding, there is some evidence to suggest that there is a great window of opportunity for India. Some key reforms could launch the country on a long cycle of high, inclusive growth that could well end with India emerging as the third largest economy in the world.

Between 1983 and 2007-08, agriculture’s share in total employment came down from 63% to 53%, and it has since declined further.

Where productivity is only about half or a third of that in the organized sector-the 2009-2010 NSS survey shows that for the first time, employment has grown much faster in the high-productivity organized sector than in the unorganized sector.

This could push up India’s potential growth rate from around 7%-8% at present to 10% or more during the next two to three decades.

Another precondition, and a much bigger challenge, is education. An important goal in itself, education is also key to equipping the workforce with the necessary knowledge and skill s to migrate from low to high productivity jobs.

Pop Explosion:

By 2025 1.40 billion, (140 crore) would overtake China’s population of 1.34 billion (134 crore)
By 2050 1.60 billion (160 crore)

By 2100 2.00 billion (200 crore)

India occupies 2.2% of the earth surface and 18% of population now, which would go upto 22% by the end of the century.

Can we provide

Education-that also quality education (especially at primary & Secondary level).
Employment-Expectation are rising the population explosion in the biggest impediment.