11 Silver Estate,
Pilibhit Bypass Road,
PO Rohilkhand University
Bareilly-243006 (U.P.)
amashokgoel@gmail.com
Air Marshal Ashok K. Goel (Retd.)
PVSM AVSM VM
As I Saw It
What Ails India
The last two decade, especially the first decade of the 21st century set the pace of economic liberalization.
Economic reforms will be 20 years old this July. Without political reforms, the full benefits of economic liberalization won’t reach the poor. The nexus between vested political and business interests, fused by lobbyists and middlemen, erodes those benefits. The reason poverty remains intractable in India is that good economic governance needs the protective umbrella of good political governance. Without that, both privilege and poverty will persist.
A fist rots from the head down, never from the tail up. The top political leadership sets the standard of governance. If that standard is set low, corruption infects the entire body politic. Every recent public scam involving leaders of the Congress and other parties can be traced to this systemic rot. Three key political reforms-police, judicial and electoral-are necessary to cleanse our public institutions.
In 2006, the Supreme Court directed the government to implement police reform. Make the national Police Commission autonomous, the court ordered, and give it a structure that is independent of political control.
Systemic corruption is symptom of failed governance. Political reforms that remove our key public institutions from government control can make 2011 the definitive year for sweeping institutional change just as 1991 was the inflection point for economic liberalization. That would greatly expand our moral universe.
The top political leadership sets the standard of governance. If that standard is set low, corruption infects the entire body politic.
The very recent happenings can’t be forgotten
• Sudden collapse and decline of economy in the west including US.
• Planned and systemic terrorist attack on 26/11/ 2008 in Mumbai.
• Scams 2G spectrum, Yedurappa scandal in Karnatka, CWG games-2010, Adarsh Society scam, Wilikileakes , exposure of Nira Raida contacts and revelations of her taped convertaion with “who is who” of India. And now the biggest ISRO scam.
These and the runway inflation have shaken the faith of the “Aam Admi” (common man) in the total governance mechanism of the country.
Whereas we would have been rejoicing our economic achievements and political stability, but we are to think very intently and seriously how to remodel ourselves on various aspects of inadequacies
I was at DSSC wellington 2000-2001 (Posted as CI Air). A national security seminar was held on “National Security” which I had the opportunity to organize as well as address one of the session. The topic I had chosen was “What Ails India”. In algebraic terms I had condensed the ailments in a formula P3C5.
P-3 - These are at National Level Population-Poverty-Pollution
Population- After 1977 (i.e. the emergency period 1975-1977) no political leader has dared to talk this most important and sensitive issue. We have grown from 300 million (30 crores) at the time of independence (1947) to 1200 million (120 crores/1.2 billion) by the end of 2010. We were expected to overtake the china’s population of 1.32 billion by 2050. Now demographers expect by 2025 if not earlier. Population stabilization was expected by 2045 (TFR of 2.1) but stands postponed to 2070. Main reason, the TFR in our big states (and most populous areas like UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan still continues to be 3 to 3.5). It would be of interest to know, if UP was an independent country, would have been the fifth most populous nation (after China, India, USA and Brazil)
Poverty & Pollution
In spite of outstanding economic progress during last 20 years, our poverty line has remained about 65% and the ultra poverty line (less than USD per day nearly 50% of that, 65% of the population defecates in the open, nearly same percentage of people have no access to potable drinking water and proper sanitation.
Pollution is directly related to fist two factors population and poverty. Unhygienic conditions/more energy requirement leads to illegal deforestation/lagers Carbonization
Some Important Statistic
The INDIA you may not know
• 71% or 770 million people are below 35 years of age. Indians are young.
• 90% to 94% drop out rate of children between kindergarten and 10+2. This includes those who have never been to school.
• The Indian definition of literacy is based on a survey of people-“If you can write your name, you are literate”; nobody has seriously ever challenged this definition!
• India has only 1.72 % of the world GDP and has 17% of the world population. Demands are high but buying power is low. Hence we will need to increase our exports related activities by 10 times, as the foreign trade is 1.00% down from 33% 1000 years ago, down from 27% wh9en the British landed in India and down from 3% in 1947.
The population BOMB
• India’s Population Policy- much to catch up and learn from others!
India has 1, 200 million people. Chins has 1,314 million. Nearly 27 million are born every year in India and ONLY 15 million in China. China has had a more effective population policy than India, although they started in 1970. India’s population policy started much earlier, in 1952. By 2045, (now expected by 2025) we shall overtake the Chinese population, with an India population of 1,550 million! Life expectancy in China is now 74 years vs 68 years in India. In China the average family size is 3.63 members. In India it is much higher, with 5.52 members.
• Percentage of people below poverty line. China and India
We fail to understood the fact why some thinkers and leaders in India, mention that our population is our strength. How can they make such statements, with so much poverty, illiteracy and a low standard of living? It’s a nightmare for the poor in India!
• India’s economic parameters- the simple truth!
India has 17% of the world’s population, 2.2% of the land area, 1.72% of the world’s GDP and only 1% of the world trade. This means that 98.27% of the World’s GDP [Buying Power] and 99% of the world’s trade is not with India! India must plan larger exports, for increasing the standard of living of its people.
• Adjustment for population increases the hard facts!
If the GDP grows by 9.2% per year, as in 2006-2007, the per capita does not grow at 9.2%. It is reduced due to the yearly population increase, inflation and other issues. Therefore the final per capita increase would be much lesser. This is only, one of the disadvantages, of ballooning population.
• Economy India has only – grow faster
C-5 This is at political level, that is
• Criminalization of politics
• Communalism in politics
• Casteism in politics
• Corruption in politics
• Compromises in coalition politics
Criminalization- Today 25 to 45% of elected reps are in the categories of criminals. Recently in a seminar in Lucknow where CEC Mr. Qureshi and Km. Mayawati both were present CEC had opined that if a person is charged with certain section of the IPC, he/she should be debarred from contesting elections. This was negated and the interests of the criminals were fully defended by the CM of UP.
Why not debar the individuals charged with criminal acts, loot, murder, rape or abetments’ of such crimes, till they are proved innocent in the court. Today politics has become a safe haven for those who are actually criminals.
Communalism- It is a very serious threat even to national security. Communalism perpetrates division and hatred among social groups. This hatred and divisiveness ferments fundamentalism. Fundamentalism activates hard liners, and hard liners find space to pollute the healthy social environment. These hard liners get activated to create unrest by violent means. This violence allows tensions to flourish resulting into terrorism.
lkEçnkf;drk vyxkookn vkSj ?k`.kk dVVjokfnrk mxzokfnrk vkradokn
Castism: To achieve narrow aims of political power the very basis of political activism is caste based selection of candidates/propaganda and canvassing, all is totally caste based. We are digging in more & more.
Corruption- The less said the better It has become a part and parcel of our daily life. The recent happenings of 2G spectrum Radia tapes, lands scam of Karnataka, CWG/ Adarsh scam are all are very recent. All are from political fraternity. There have been much larger scams in the past “Chara Ghotala” of Bihar and “Koda scam of Jharkhand”. Aam Adami is waiting to see if anyone is correctly and seriously penalized.
Fast track courts, life ban on public life (election etc.) heaviest punitive action would be the only answer.
Compromise in coaltine politics
These are more than 300 registered political parties with the election commission. (some say this no. is more than 600). Political parties are just mushrooming (one man parties) regional parties, and national parties.
The very objective of these one man and regional parties is to gain some seats during general election. And then bargain with large national parties to support them, demand ministerial berths and lucrative ministries. Such outfits are only looking for quick and smart money. Because of this very factor instead of one captain of the team we have many (Like in the present scenario we have Karunanidhi/Mamta Banerjee/Sharad Pawar and many more).
What do we do to overcome P3-C5
• National consensus on certain vital issues (Social, National Security, Foreign Policy)
• Political Reform
• Electoral Reform
• Legal Reform
• Administrative Reform
• Social Reform
• Police Reform (in spite of 2006, SC directive most of the big states are not ready to implements them)
We are waiting for population explosion, which is slowly blooming and would kind us in a population bomb.
All there ills (P3-C5) weaken the country, governance gets diluted, our political masters are to wake up, unrest is showing. All threats like terrorism, Naxalism, youth unrest, unemployment, large gaps in inclusive growth are serious threats to the security of the country.
Friday, September 9, 2011
The Topiwala Camera
The Topiwala Camera
ANIL DHARKER
In covering Anna, TV seems to have shed its critical faculties
“CORRUPTION,” I remarked the other day on a television channel, “takes more than one form.” We were talking about-what else?-the latest incremental progression in the Anna Hazare saga. “Everyone talks of money corruption, but what about the other kind=”Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely’? And who has any kind of power now? Only two entities: Anna Hazare and television.”
Rigidity of Team Anna, and its constitutional implications, but no one wants to talk about how the television medium itself is dictating what we think, what we say and when we say it.
In this prevailing atmosphere, you better be for Anna Hazare completely, without any qualifications or reservations, or you will be deemed to be either for corruption or a lackey of the government.
Anna is a television creation.
Is it really old-fashioned to believe that the media should remain, under all circumstances, balanced and objective?
Everyone would want the media to be against corruption, so when a movement like Anna’s starts, you expect the media to be on that movement’s side. But do you expect it to act as the movement’s propagandist?
Television’s lack of objectivity has meant that really important questions are also not being discussed: like the dictatorial tendencies of Team Hazare, the flaws in the Jan Lokpal Bill, the monumental machinery required for the Lokpal agency and the difficulty in keeping it corruption free.
Television’s all-consuming obsession with the campaign has prevented it from looking at already established anti-corruption agencies and why they are not working agencies like the CBI, CVC, ACB, and the Lok Ayuktas set us in some states.
But the channels won’t say it, or many of the other things that need to be said. If they did so, it just might weaken the movement, and that wouldn’t be good for TRPS, would it ?
Comments:
The opinion of Dharker was published in “Outlook”) of 5 Sept. 2011
The media remained highly biased on the side of so called civil society. Electronic media aired 24x14 only the Ram Lila ground. Just to earn the TRP.
Dissenting views were completely ignored. Some of them were:
(a) Tushar Gandhi-great-great grandson of Mahatma Gandhi.
(b) Arudhanti Roy –A renowned social activist.
(c) Prakash Singh (IPS) -Retd. DGP –UP Assam & BSF. Who steered the PIL on Police reforms and won favourably in the SC.
(d) Anil Dharker – a Columnist.
(e) No. of prof of JNU and others.
Anyone who wanted to use derogatory language against the Govt had a Manch ¼eap½, Mike, Media and the Messes to air the abusive language.
Should we not formalize certain self imposed taboos on the electronic media so the reporting is unbiased and objective.
ANIL DHARKER
In covering Anna, TV seems to have shed its critical faculties
“CORRUPTION,” I remarked the other day on a television channel, “takes more than one form.” We were talking about-what else?-the latest incremental progression in the Anna Hazare saga. “Everyone talks of money corruption, but what about the other kind=”Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely’? And who has any kind of power now? Only two entities: Anna Hazare and television.”
Rigidity of Team Anna, and its constitutional implications, but no one wants to talk about how the television medium itself is dictating what we think, what we say and when we say it.
In this prevailing atmosphere, you better be for Anna Hazare completely, without any qualifications or reservations, or you will be deemed to be either for corruption or a lackey of the government.
Anna is a television creation.
Is it really old-fashioned to believe that the media should remain, under all circumstances, balanced and objective?
Everyone would want the media to be against corruption, so when a movement like Anna’s starts, you expect the media to be on that movement’s side. But do you expect it to act as the movement’s propagandist?
Television’s lack of objectivity has meant that really important questions are also not being discussed: like the dictatorial tendencies of Team Hazare, the flaws in the Jan Lokpal Bill, the monumental machinery required for the Lokpal agency and the difficulty in keeping it corruption free.
Television’s all-consuming obsession with the campaign has prevented it from looking at already established anti-corruption agencies and why they are not working agencies like the CBI, CVC, ACB, and the Lok Ayuktas set us in some states.
But the channels won’t say it, or many of the other things that need to be said. If they did so, it just might weaken the movement, and that wouldn’t be good for TRPS, would it ?
Comments:
The opinion of Dharker was published in “Outlook”) of 5 Sept. 2011
The media remained highly biased on the side of so called civil society. Electronic media aired 24x14 only the Ram Lila ground. Just to earn the TRP.
Dissenting views were completely ignored. Some of them were:
(a) Tushar Gandhi-great-great grandson of Mahatma Gandhi.
(b) Arudhanti Roy –A renowned social activist.
(c) Prakash Singh (IPS) -Retd. DGP –UP Assam & BSF. Who steered the PIL on Police reforms and won favourably in the SC.
(d) Anil Dharker – a Columnist.
(e) No. of prof of JNU and others.
Anyone who wanted to use derogatory language against the Govt had a Manch ¼eap½, Mike, Media and the Messes to air the abusive language.
Should we not formalize certain self imposed taboos on the electronic media so the reporting is unbiased and objective.
As I Saw It Former Pakistan President Pervez Mus
11 Silver Estate,
Pilibhit Bypass Road,
PO Rohilkhand University
Bareilly-243006 (U.P.)
amashokgoel@gmail.com
Air Marshal Ashok K. Goel (Retd.)
PVSM AVSM VM
As I Saw It
Former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, who announced his political party on October 1 in London, has been in the news for his admission to a German magazine that Pakistan had trained militant groups to fight against India and “the government turned a blind eye because they wanted India to discuss Kashmir”.
We want good relations with India, but it has to be based on justice and fairness. Kashmir is the primary problem and improvement in bilateral relations between the two countries depends on the resolution of the Kashmir issue.
Pakistan’s security situation gets muddled when India becomes hyper active in Afghanistan.
Taliban has conducted several suicide attacks in the heartland of Pakistan. Military action has to create space for political solution. Tough measures were not undertaken on a whim. We tried all option but failed. Now, a mix of soft and tough measures need to be adopted. If I return to power, the armed forces in Pakistan will be well-equipped and maintained. Any adventurism against Pakistan will be thwarted.
Pakistan is passing through turmoil and turbulence and we believe that an alternative political option should be available to the people. Democracy needs to be overhauled in Pakistan and it will have to be rid of the traditional vestiges like kinship and feudalism.
But he has to remember that Pakistan has been its most important ally in the war on terror and he has to acknowledge the sacrifices and initiatives that Pakistan undertook after the attack on the World Trade Center in New York on September 11.
Failure of governance is the greatest threat today. Immediate necessity on the ground in Pakistan is a functional governance structure free of corruption.
While people like Bhutto and Sharif were sent into exile by dictators, in Musharraf’s case, the dictator himself had to flee following the return to democracy in the country. Musharraf is now trying to be part of that democracy with the launch of his political party, The All Pakistan Muslim League (APML, on October 1 at London’s former National Liberal Club.
Two things are clear about Musharraf’s politics in London. One, his reading and thinking have increased his conviction against religious extremists like the Taliban; second, his exile has not been apolitical.
No one knows why Musharraf decided to relaunch his political career. It is a popular joke among Pakitani journalists that Musharraf did so because he considers himself a gift of a God to mankind.
Low on international trust, under assault of Islamic fundamentalists and Taliban, ravaged by worst floods in the century, Pakistan is a challenge to any aspiring ruler. Musharraf, it seems, is not afraid to take up the challenge. Apart from “Pakistan First”, his other slogan is “Jaag Pakistan Jaag”. His party’s symbol is the introvert eagle, shaheen in Urdu. Musharraf, like the bird, is not afraid of being a lone ranger.
Pilibhit Bypass Road,
PO Rohilkhand University
Bareilly-243006 (U.P.)
amashokgoel@gmail.com
Air Marshal Ashok K. Goel (Retd.)
PVSM AVSM VM
As I Saw It
Former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, who announced his political party on October 1 in London, has been in the news for his admission to a German magazine that Pakistan had trained militant groups to fight against India and “the government turned a blind eye because they wanted India to discuss Kashmir”.
We want good relations with India, but it has to be based on justice and fairness. Kashmir is the primary problem and improvement in bilateral relations between the two countries depends on the resolution of the Kashmir issue.
Pakistan’s security situation gets muddled when India becomes hyper active in Afghanistan.
Taliban has conducted several suicide attacks in the heartland of Pakistan. Military action has to create space for political solution. Tough measures were not undertaken on a whim. We tried all option but failed. Now, a mix of soft and tough measures need to be adopted. If I return to power, the armed forces in Pakistan will be well-equipped and maintained. Any adventurism against Pakistan will be thwarted.
Pakistan is passing through turmoil and turbulence and we believe that an alternative political option should be available to the people. Democracy needs to be overhauled in Pakistan and it will have to be rid of the traditional vestiges like kinship and feudalism.
But he has to remember that Pakistan has been its most important ally in the war on terror and he has to acknowledge the sacrifices and initiatives that Pakistan undertook after the attack on the World Trade Center in New York on September 11.
Failure of governance is the greatest threat today. Immediate necessity on the ground in Pakistan is a functional governance structure free of corruption.
While people like Bhutto and Sharif were sent into exile by dictators, in Musharraf’s case, the dictator himself had to flee following the return to democracy in the country. Musharraf is now trying to be part of that democracy with the launch of his political party, The All Pakistan Muslim League (APML, on October 1 at London’s former National Liberal Club.
Two things are clear about Musharraf’s politics in London. One, his reading and thinking have increased his conviction against religious extremists like the Taliban; second, his exile has not been apolitical.
No one knows why Musharraf decided to relaunch his political career. It is a popular joke among Pakitani journalists that Musharraf did so because he considers himself a gift of a God to mankind.
Low on international trust, under assault of Islamic fundamentalists and Taliban, ravaged by worst floods in the century, Pakistan is a challenge to any aspiring ruler. Musharraf, it seems, is not afraid to take up the challenge. Apart from “Pakistan First”, his other slogan is “Jaag Pakistan Jaag”. His party’s symbol is the introvert eagle, shaheen in Urdu. Musharraf, like the bird, is not afraid of being a lone ranger.
Osama and the would there after
11 Silver Estate,
Pilibhit Bypass Road,
PO Rohilkhand University
Bareilly-243006 (U.P.)
amashokgoel@gmail.com
Air Marshal Ashok K. Goel (Retd.)
PVSM AVSM VM
Osama and the would there after
• The beginning of another war against Terror.
First Three Months
• Regrouping, charting out new strategies, redefining new targets.
• Regionalization and new command and control structures.
• Intensity heavy blows in / Afghanistan/Pakistan & India.
• Europe as a whole / UK and France will be their prime targets, Attempt to strike in US may not succeed.
American citizen and the US interest globally would be the prime targets.
These observation comments were offered during 1st week of Jun 2011. (on completion of one month of operation “Geronimo”).
The recent downing of two “heavy lift helicopters” in Afghanistan is an indicator. Just the beginning.
Article/observation on “Operation Geronimo” is attached.
Pilibhit Bypass Road,
PO Rohilkhand University
Bareilly-243006 (U.P.)
amashokgoel@gmail.com
Air Marshal Ashok K. Goel (Retd.)
PVSM AVSM VM
Osama and the would there after
• The beginning of another war against Terror.
First Three Months
• Regrouping, charting out new strategies, redefining new targets.
• Regionalization and new command and control structures.
• Intensity heavy blows in / Afghanistan/Pakistan & India.
• Europe as a whole / UK and France will be their prime targets, Attempt to strike in US may not succeed.
American citizen and the US interest globally would be the prime targets.
These observation comments were offered during 1st week of Jun 2011. (on completion of one month of operation “Geronimo”).
The recent downing of two “heavy lift helicopters” in Afghanistan is an indicator. Just the beginning.
Article/observation on “Operation Geronimo” is attached.
Operation Geronimo Pak & India
As I Saw It
Operation Geronimo Pak & India
May 1 & 2 2011 became the day of global celebration for the US. They succeeded in eliminating world’s most dreaded terrorist “Osama Bin Laden”. This operation fully demonstrated the application of the strength of the economic power, strongest of military power, supported by extra ordinary advanced technology, and the most important decisive, discreet and unwavering Political will.
All that took even the unipolar power ten years to achieve their first objective of the war against terror, US has been attacked only twice, first time during 2nd world war the attack on “Pearl Habour” and then 9/11-where hijacked commercial air liners flew into the twin towers.
There has been large scale jubilation especially in the US and NATO countries. And there are anti US and anti NATO demonstrations from and within the Muslim world. India has demonstrated a modest support, not being very vocal about it. Undoubtedly Pak has been a perpetrator of global terrorism and its biggest recipient has been India.
Indian “Electronic Media” as well as print media have shown their aggressive behavior as they have shown for such events. There have been many debates on the electronic media “why India has not launched such a surgical operation (like operation “Geronimo” ½ May 2011). “Some chair borne security analyst” have claimed that we should have carried out such a surgical operation after the tragic event of 26/11 2008 in Mumbai. COAS during his visit to Lucknow on 2/3 May did mention that “we do have the capability”.
I am reminded of two such events of my career, where I was directly involved, in spite of all the inputs we failed within our own country.
Hostages Rescue Operation-1995
Six foreigners were taken hostages on 7 July 1995 on the upper ridges of Pahalgam (in J & K). The group which had claimed this act was “Al-Faran” consisting of fourteen members. One US national out of the six escaped. He was picked up by an army helicopter (He drew the attention of the flying chopper by waving his shirt). One Norwegian was beheaded and his body was thrown on the streets of Anantnag to spread terror (1st week of Aug 1995).
As a followup a task force was created end Aug 1995. I was posted as SASO Hq AOC J & K located at Udhampur. (In the state of J & K) I was asked on 30 Aug 1995 “to move to Srinagar and report at Hq 15 Corps. The details with Operation order from Hq WAC would follow”.
The task force assembled on 31 Aug 1995 under the overall command of GOC 15 Corps to rescue the four foreign hostages from the terrorist group “Alfaran”. 2 Army Bn for ground rescue and cordoning operation. 150 NSG Commandoes 12 Mi -17 Helicopter & 6 attack helicopter (Mi 35) formed the overall force.
Maj Gen Sihota ( victor force Cdr) was the ground force cdr; Col BS Daulta was heading the NSG group and I was designated the “Air Borne Force” cdr.
After detailed briefings from IB, RAW state int, local Army intelligence the task force got going. Briefing by various int agencies was the daily routine to have an update. Air force and NSG started their integrated training on a daily and regular basis at “Toshe Maidan” range located near AF base in Srinagar valley.
GOC 15 corps, Maj Gen Sihota and I started flying close to the reported location of the Alfaran group. We used to land in small grounds and interact with the locals to ascertain and reestablish the inputs from intelligence agencies and ground reports. By 8/9 Sep 1995 exact location of the Alfaran group in the village, the house location were established. On 11/12 Sep mid night the complete operation group carried out full fledged mock drill over Gulmarg. Highly motivated and well trained commandoes were escorted by attack helicopters. Carried out slithering operation from a height of 30 meter from ground. Even I had slithered down with the commandoes during the mock drill and the full fledged rehearsal.
On 14 Sep 1995 then COAS Gen Shanker Roy Chaudhary had flown to Awantipur (Air base in the Srinagar Valley). A presentation was made to the COAS, how int reports and ground interaction substantiated by humint had assured the task force of striking the terrorist group. The task force was fully charged, ready and confident of the success of the operation COAS departed with the words “you will get the suitable instructions”. On 18 Sep a message was received from the CMG, “can the task force guarantee the safety of the hostages”. (Crisis management group-chaired by Cab Sec. Members Foreign/Home/Defence Securities and ambassadors/high commissioners of the countries whose nationals were the hostages) Which fool could guarantee the safety of even one person in such an operation. The answer “NO” was communicated to the CMG. On 21 Sep 1995 a message was received task force can disperse, further instructions would follow. No instruction followed till 2003 end (when I retired) and even till now. I often met Lt Gen Sihota (Retd as Army Cdr southern Command), Maj Gen BS Daulta. We just lamented in not giving a successful culmination to our well thought out, planned and ready to execute plan.
Hijacking of IC-814-(24 Dec-31 Dec 1999)
IC 814 was hijacked on a flight from Kathmandu to Palam on 24 Dec 1999. I was on deputation to ARC aviation wing of the RAW. I was the operation head of the ARC. At 5 PM (24 Dec 1999) I was informed of the hijacking. ARC’s one of the assigned roles is anti hijacking operation. Hijacked aircraft had landed at – Amritsar around 6:15 PM. The IL-76 air craft was ready by5:30 PM, NSG troupes had arrived by 6 PM. The IL-76
aircraft with the NSG commandoes was ready to depart at 6:45 PM. I was constantly in touch with Billy Bedi. (Director ARC at that time) who was operating from CMG outfit. As the IL-76 aircraft was on the take off point a message was received that the hijacked aircraft is all set to take off from Amritsar A decision was taken to let the IL-76 aircraft go with the NSG anti hijacking force.
The hijacked flight (IC-814) took off from Amritsar after being on ground for about 40-45 min. What a shame, there were about half a dozen ways to incapacitate the hijacked aircraft at Amritsar.
(a) During the landing itself crew could have operated the max rate unit. (in the wheel braking system) this could have deflated the wheels on the runway itself .
(b) Emergency retraction of the u/c at lower speeds of the landing run would have u/c system collapse on the r/w itself.
(c) Aircraft could have been swerved off the runway and stopped in the Kaccha.
(d) 40 commandoes of the PAP (Punjab Armed Police) had surrounded the aircraft immediately on landing. These commandoes were fully trained and professionally competent to storm the aircraft.
(e) The commandoes could have fired few bullets to deflate the aircraft tyres.
(f) A fuel bowser Could have been placed just in front of the aircraft, not to roll ahead.
But all the actions could have lead some violent action by the hijacker & , so what.
Biggest shameful act for a nation that a hijacked air craft departs from its soil. Finally the IC814 departed from Amritsar and landed at Lahore-refueled, flew to Dubai and reached Kandhar on 25 Dec 1999, under the full control of Taliban. The GOI succumbed to the demands of the hijackers. We acceeded to their demands and released three hard core terrorist (Azahar Massod, Omer Shaikh, Lakhavi) who were languishing in our jails (Jammu & Srinagar) for last 5 years. We handed them over to the Taliban force on 31 Dec 1999 and returned home with the released IC-814.
In both the cases we have shown utter lack of of foresight indecisiveness and lack of courage on the part of our political leaders.
If the CAOS says we have the capability to launch surgical operation like Geronimo-yes we do have, but we don’t have the will. The only time when we had such an opportunity was during Kargil ops.
Pakistan has felt humiliated only twice.
First time- on 16 Dec 1971 when 93000 Pak army troops surrended to Indian Armed force and their eastern wing was clipped
Second time- On ½ May 2011 when US SEAL commandoes entered Pak and annihilated “Osama Bin Laden” the most wanted Global Terrorist.
On both the occasion the strong willed political heads displayed, decisive, definite decision making. Indira Gandhi in 1971 and Barak Obama now.
Environment was favorable during the Kargil war to initiate hot pursuit or a surgical operation. We have failed to meet the terrorist threats within our own territory, snooping into a neighboring country has its inherent dangers.
Operation Geronimo Pak & India
May 1 & 2 2011 became the day of global celebration for the US. They succeeded in eliminating world’s most dreaded terrorist “Osama Bin Laden”. This operation fully demonstrated the application of the strength of the economic power, strongest of military power, supported by extra ordinary advanced technology, and the most important decisive, discreet and unwavering Political will.
All that took even the unipolar power ten years to achieve their first objective of the war against terror, US has been attacked only twice, first time during 2nd world war the attack on “Pearl Habour” and then 9/11-where hijacked commercial air liners flew into the twin towers.
There has been large scale jubilation especially in the US and NATO countries. And there are anti US and anti NATO demonstrations from and within the Muslim world. India has demonstrated a modest support, not being very vocal about it. Undoubtedly Pak has been a perpetrator of global terrorism and its biggest recipient has been India.
Indian “Electronic Media” as well as print media have shown their aggressive behavior as they have shown for such events. There have been many debates on the electronic media “why India has not launched such a surgical operation (like operation “Geronimo” ½ May 2011). “Some chair borne security analyst” have claimed that we should have carried out such a surgical operation after the tragic event of 26/11 2008 in Mumbai. COAS during his visit to Lucknow on 2/3 May did mention that “we do have the capability”.
I am reminded of two such events of my career, where I was directly involved, in spite of all the inputs we failed within our own country.
Hostages Rescue Operation-1995
Six foreigners were taken hostages on 7 July 1995 on the upper ridges of Pahalgam (in J & K). The group which had claimed this act was “Al-Faran” consisting of fourteen members. One US national out of the six escaped. He was picked up by an army helicopter (He drew the attention of the flying chopper by waving his shirt). One Norwegian was beheaded and his body was thrown on the streets of Anantnag to spread terror (1st week of Aug 1995).
As a followup a task force was created end Aug 1995. I was posted as SASO Hq AOC J & K located at Udhampur. (In the state of J & K) I was asked on 30 Aug 1995 “to move to Srinagar and report at Hq 15 Corps. The details with Operation order from Hq WAC would follow”.
The task force assembled on 31 Aug 1995 under the overall command of GOC 15 Corps to rescue the four foreign hostages from the terrorist group “Alfaran”. 2 Army Bn for ground rescue and cordoning operation. 150 NSG Commandoes 12 Mi -17 Helicopter & 6 attack helicopter (Mi 35) formed the overall force.
Maj Gen Sihota ( victor force Cdr) was the ground force cdr; Col BS Daulta was heading the NSG group and I was designated the “Air Borne Force” cdr.
After detailed briefings from IB, RAW state int, local Army intelligence the task force got going. Briefing by various int agencies was the daily routine to have an update. Air force and NSG started their integrated training on a daily and regular basis at “Toshe Maidan” range located near AF base in Srinagar valley.
GOC 15 corps, Maj Gen Sihota and I started flying close to the reported location of the Alfaran group. We used to land in small grounds and interact with the locals to ascertain and reestablish the inputs from intelligence agencies and ground reports. By 8/9 Sep 1995 exact location of the Alfaran group in the village, the house location were established. On 11/12 Sep mid night the complete operation group carried out full fledged mock drill over Gulmarg. Highly motivated and well trained commandoes were escorted by attack helicopters. Carried out slithering operation from a height of 30 meter from ground. Even I had slithered down with the commandoes during the mock drill and the full fledged rehearsal.
On 14 Sep 1995 then COAS Gen Shanker Roy Chaudhary had flown to Awantipur (Air base in the Srinagar Valley). A presentation was made to the COAS, how int reports and ground interaction substantiated by humint had assured the task force of striking the terrorist group. The task force was fully charged, ready and confident of the success of the operation COAS departed with the words “you will get the suitable instructions”. On 18 Sep a message was received from the CMG, “can the task force guarantee the safety of the hostages”. (Crisis management group-chaired by Cab Sec. Members Foreign/Home/Defence Securities and ambassadors/high commissioners of the countries whose nationals were the hostages) Which fool could guarantee the safety of even one person in such an operation. The answer “NO” was communicated to the CMG. On 21 Sep 1995 a message was received task force can disperse, further instructions would follow. No instruction followed till 2003 end (when I retired) and even till now. I often met Lt Gen Sihota (Retd as Army Cdr southern Command), Maj Gen BS Daulta. We just lamented in not giving a successful culmination to our well thought out, planned and ready to execute plan.
Hijacking of IC-814-(24 Dec-31 Dec 1999)
IC 814 was hijacked on a flight from Kathmandu to Palam on 24 Dec 1999. I was on deputation to ARC aviation wing of the RAW. I was the operation head of the ARC. At 5 PM (24 Dec 1999) I was informed of the hijacking. ARC’s one of the assigned roles is anti hijacking operation. Hijacked aircraft had landed at – Amritsar around 6:15 PM. The IL-76 air craft was ready by5:30 PM, NSG troupes had arrived by 6 PM. The IL-76
aircraft with the NSG commandoes was ready to depart at 6:45 PM. I was constantly in touch with Billy Bedi. (Director ARC at that time) who was operating from CMG outfit. As the IL-76 aircraft was on the take off point a message was received that the hijacked aircraft is all set to take off from Amritsar A decision was taken to let the IL-76 aircraft go with the NSG anti hijacking force.
The hijacked flight (IC-814) took off from Amritsar after being on ground for about 40-45 min. What a shame, there were about half a dozen ways to incapacitate the hijacked aircraft at Amritsar.
(a) During the landing itself crew could have operated the max rate unit. (in the wheel braking system) this could have deflated the wheels on the runway itself .
(b) Emergency retraction of the u/c at lower speeds of the landing run would have u/c system collapse on the r/w itself.
(c) Aircraft could have been swerved off the runway and stopped in the Kaccha.
(d) 40 commandoes of the PAP (Punjab Armed Police) had surrounded the aircraft immediately on landing. These commandoes were fully trained and professionally competent to storm the aircraft.
(e) The commandoes could have fired few bullets to deflate the aircraft tyres.
(f) A fuel bowser Could have been placed just in front of the aircraft, not to roll ahead.
But all the actions could have lead some violent action by the hijacker & , so what.
Biggest shameful act for a nation that a hijacked air craft departs from its soil. Finally the IC814 departed from Amritsar and landed at Lahore-refueled, flew to Dubai and reached Kandhar on 25 Dec 1999, under the full control of Taliban. The GOI succumbed to the demands of the hijackers. We acceeded to their demands and released three hard core terrorist (Azahar Massod, Omer Shaikh, Lakhavi) who were languishing in our jails (Jammu & Srinagar) for last 5 years. We handed them over to the Taliban force on 31 Dec 1999 and returned home with the released IC-814.
In both the cases we have shown utter lack of of foresight indecisiveness and lack of courage on the part of our political leaders.
If the CAOS says we have the capability to launch surgical operation like Geronimo-yes we do have, but we don’t have the will. The only time when we had such an opportunity was during Kargil ops.
Pakistan has felt humiliated only twice.
First time- on 16 Dec 1971 when 93000 Pak army troops surrended to Indian Armed force and their eastern wing was clipped
Second time- On ½ May 2011 when US SEAL commandoes entered Pak and annihilated “Osama Bin Laden” the most wanted Global Terrorist.
On both the occasion the strong willed political heads displayed, decisive, definite decision making. Indira Gandhi in 1971 and Barak Obama now.
Environment was favorable during the Kargil war to initiate hot pursuit or a surgical operation. We have failed to meet the terrorist threats within our own territory, snooping into a neighboring country has its inherent dangers.
Like the US, India must explore the option
As I Saw It
Like the US, India must explore the option
of covert military action against terrorists
Every time any country carries out a successful covert military operation against a terrorist target, the question inevitably arises in India as to why it cannot do the same. On the face of it, there are sound arguments as to why this option should be part of the country’s counter-terrorism strategy. India regularly gets listed as among the world’s worst affected countries when it comes to terrorism-and is probably number one or number two when it comes to the cross-border variety. Pakistan, which tolerates if not facilitates the actions of the militant groups responsible, has made it clear it sees terrorism as a means to extract concessions from India in the arena of normal statecraft. New Delhi’s seeming lack of a proactive military policy against terrorism is detrimental to its own attempt to project India as a rising power and a safe investment destination.
But this is not a simple decision of blood and guts. A number of larger issues come into play. The least significant is the issue of capacity. Countries like Israel, smaller and with less resources, have been able to create fear-inspiring covert military capabilities. India almost certainly lacks the capacity today, but the ability can be created if there is political will and public pressure to do so. Probably the most difficult facet of covert military actions is creating an intelligence system that can provide actionable information.
How US could do operation “Geronimo”
in Pak and why India cannot do & Succeed.
• US forces are operating from Pak terrority for last 10 years.
• They control 4 Pak air bases.
• They have undertaken anti terrorist attacks/including drone attacks within and in neighboring Afghanistan.
• US provides extra ordinary financial support to Pak, US rather is sustaining Pak economy.
• US is a Strong Economy.
• US is largest & strongest military power.
• US is an unchallenged power in the unipolar world.
• Pak is thousands of miles away from US.
• No possibility of escalation of the conflict.
• No threat or danger of any nuclear fallout.
Wake up
Yashwant Sinha - BJP Leader
G Parthsarathy - Former high commissioner to Pak
Dhobal - Former DIB
Jovadeker - spokes person BJP
Brig Kanwal - Director CLAWS
They are vocal on “Geronimo” type of ops from Indian soil.
The most problematic issue is whether such actions would be politically feasible in the kind of environment that exists in South Asia. Pakistan is happy to allow terrorist attacks on India because it is unconcerned about international opinion and, in fact, encourages the world to see the subcontinent as an unstable and dangerous place. India wishes to do the opposite and has the additional ambition to be seen as responsible global player.
Like the US, India must explore the option
of covert military action against terrorists
Every time any country carries out a successful covert military operation against a terrorist target, the question inevitably arises in India as to why it cannot do the same. On the face of it, there are sound arguments as to why this option should be part of the country’s counter-terrorism strategy. India regularly gets listed as among the world’s worst affected countries when it comes to terrorism-and is probably number one or number two when it comes to the cross-border variety. Pakistan, which tolerates if not facilitates the actions of the militant groups responsible, has made it clear it sees terrorism as a means to extract concessions from India in the arena of normal statecraft. New Delhi’s seeming lack of a proactive military policy against terrorism is detrimental to its own attempt to project India as a rising power and a safe investment destination.
But this is not a simple decision of blood and guts. A number of larger issues come into play. The least significant is the issue of capacity. Countries like Israel, smaller and with less resources, have been able to create fear-inspiring covert military capabilities. India almost certainly lacks the capacity today, but the ability can be created if there is political will and public pressure to do so. Probably the most difficult facet of covert military actions is creating an intelligence system that can provide actionable information.
How US could do operation “Geronimo”
in Pak and why India cannot do & Succeed.
• US forces are operating from Pak terrority for last 10 years.
• They control 4 Pak air bases.
• They have undertaken anti terrorist attacks/including drone attacks within and in neighboring Afghanistan.
• US provides extra ordinary financial support to Pak, US rather is sustaining Pak economy.
• US is a Strong Economy.
• US is largest & strongest military power.
• US is an unchallenged power in the unipolar world.
• Pak is thousands of miles away from US.
• No possibility of escalation of the conflict.
• No threat or danger of any nuclear fallout.
Wake up
Yashwant Sinha - BJP Leader
G Parthsarathy - Former high commissioner to Pak
Dhobal - Former DIB
Jovadeker - spokes person BJP
Brig Kanwal - Director CLAWS
They are vocal on “Geronimo” type of ops from Indian soil.
The most problematic issue is whether such actions would be politically feasible in the kind of environment that exists in South Asia. Pakistan is happy to allow terrorist attacks on India because it is unconcerned about international opinion and, in fact, encourages the world to see the subcontinent as an unstable and dangerous place. India wishes to do the opposite and has the additional ambition to be seen as responsible global player.
Light Combat Aircraft Tejas or Late Combat- Aircraft
11 Silver Estate,
Pilibhit Bypass Road,
PO Rohilkhand University
Bareilly-243006 (U.P.)
amashokgoel@gmail.com
Air Marshal Ashok K. Goel (Retd.)
PVSM AVSM VM
Light Combat Aircraft Tejas or Late Combat- Aircraft
The word Tejas-refelects energy, power, lethality, and has a killer instinct.
To indigenize has been a “key results area” since independence in every sphere of industrialization. We have been spearheading indigenization in every field, consumer goods electrical, electronic car manufacturing. Even in defence the very needs of the army & navy in arms and shipbuilding have advanced favorably. We have lagged behind seriously in the aviation circles. We have not been able to produce even a single transport plane worth ‘its’ utility in civil aviation format or for military utilization.
We did have a go on the first flighter plane. HF-24 was produced in late sixties. Took the lives of our most renowned test pilots. Two squadrons did get inducted at Jodhpur as show pieces. Could never prove their combat viability-due to “power weight ratio” imbalance and were phased one in a matter of ten years. Marut had retired by mid seventies. Fire in the belly was always burning with our scientific community. The development of Tejas (LCA) has taken 27 years beginning 1983. The first flight took off on 4 Jan 2001/. Since then, 10 prototypes have been produced and nearly 1500 flights have been done so far.
10 Jan 2011 was a memorable day at HAL airport Banglore. IOC (Initial Operational Clearance) certificate was given to the Tejas. Hon Def minister handed over the IOC to the CAS. What does that mean- aircraft is air worthy, but all systems and weapons have not been fully integrated. Media hype was unprecedented and over reactive. Media was broadcasting and speculating “By this event India has become a “regional super air power and all its neighbours are going to be just not only threatened but would be annihilated”.
The costs have gone much beyond expectations.
(A) The overall developmental cost of the Tejas has zoomed to Rs. 17269 cr from the initial Rs 560 or earmarked in 1983.
(B) Each Tejas would cost around Rs 200 cr.
(C) India will spend over Rs 25000 cr on the project. Now the planned and projected induction.
(D) Final operational clearance is expected by Dec 2012.
(E) The real induction of the first 40 Tejas jets will begin only towards end 2013, and likely to be operational at Sulur airbase by 2015. The first 40 aircraft will be fitted with GE 404 engines.
(F) The first test flight of the Tejas MKII with more powerful GE 414 engines will be possible by Dec 2014.
(G) IAf is expected to receive an inventory of 200 aircraft totally as the initial contract (expectedly by 2015-16).
Even if these dates are sacropart and meticulously adhered to we can expect these aircraft with the IAF not earlier than 2018 or so. Even if we take very modest period of slippages and delays (beyond manufactures control) we can expect their full strength operational not earlier than 2020.
The shape of the IAF in 2015-2020
Post 1962, after Chinese debacle, govt. had approved for a force of 64 Sqn (nearly 1275 aircarft for the Air Force) including MR & SOW. The same was pegged down to 45 Sqn after Indo Pak conflict of 1965 (nearly 900 a/c). It was further reviewed and diluted to 39.5 Sqn (About 800 aircraft including MR & SOW)
We registered a maximum number up to of 700 front line combat aircraft (nearly 35-36 Sqn). Primary composition remained Mig-21 type of the air crafter in the similar series Mig 21’S have been depleting at a fast rate during the last 5-7 years on completion of their TTL (Total technical life) It would be fairly accurate to state we are down to less than 30 Sqn just about 500 + at the end of the 1st decade of the 21st century.
The IAF inventory as perceived during the 2nd decade i.e. 2015-2020 would be (including MR & SOW)
SU 30 272 by 2015 (inducted 12-15 years back)
Mig 21 Big 126
Mirages upgraded 50 (inducted 25 years back)
Jaguars 60 (inducted more than 30 years back)
MRCA 126 (To be inducted not earlier than 2015)
Mig-29 & Mig 27 100 (inducted more than 25 years back)
534
LCA 200
LCA 2015-2020 by that time 126 Mig Biz would have been out of service.
Some politicians and their chairborne analyst and commentators would have the following comments to offer.
(a) One Su-30 is capable of delivering the weapon load of one SQn of Mig-21.
(b) HAL would speed up the production line of LCA to produce about 40 aircraft per year.
(c) There is every possibility delay in induction of MRCA & LCA in the time frame envisaged.
(d) A gap of nearly 250 aircraft would remain during this decade.
The no of aircraft cannot be reduced dramatically with their enhanced lethality.
The capability of the HAL to produce 40 aircraft per year is highly sceptical: The experience of production of ALH is very recent.
How would LCA finally end up as a 3½ generation combat aircraft could only be assessed and proved on its induction?
IAF has to gear up from now only to fill a serious gap of 250 aircraft now and another 250 aircraft gap in the third decade 2021 to 2030. This gap of nos and technology advancement would always remain a night mare for the planners of the IAF.
Pilibhit Bypass Road,
PO Rohilkhand University
Bareilly-243006 (U.P.)
amashokgoel@gmail.com
Air Marshal Ashok K. Goel (Retd.)
PVSM AVSM VM
Light Combat Aircraft Tejas or Late Combat- Aircraft
The word Tejas-refelects energy, power, lethality, and has a killer instinct.
To indigenize has been a “key results area” since independence in every sphere of industrialization. We have been spearheading indigenization in every field, consumer goods electrical, electronic car manufacturing. Even in defence the very needs of the army & navy in arms and shipbuilding have advanced favorably. We have lagged behind seriously in the aviation circles. We have not been able to produce even a single transport plane worth ‘its’ utility in civil aviation format or for military utilization.
We did have a go on the first flighter plane. HF-24 was produced in late sixties. Took the lives of our most renowned test pilots. Two squadrons did get inducted at Jodhpur as show pieces. Could never prove their combat viability-due to “power weight ratio” imbalance and were phased one in a matter of ten years. Marut had retired by mid seventies. Fire in the belly was always burning with our scientific community. The development of Tejas (LCA) has taken 27 years beginning 1983. The first flight took off on 4 Jan 2001/. Since then, 10 prototypes have been produced and nearly 1500 flights have been done so far.
10 Jan 2011 was a memorable day at HAL airport Banglore. IOC (Initial Operational Clearance) certificate was given to the Tejas. Hon Def minister handed over the IOC to the CAS. What does that mean- aircraft is air worthy, but all systems and weapons have not been fully integrated. Media hype was unprecedented and over reactive. Media was broadcasting and speculating “By this event India has become a “regional super air power and all its neighbours are going to be just not only threatened but would be annihilated”.
The costs have gone much beyond expectations.
(A) The overall developmental cost of the Tejas has zoomed to Rs. 17269 cr from the initial Rs 560 or earmarked in 1983.
(B) Each Tejas would cost around Rs 200 cr.
(C) India will spend over Rs 25000 cr on the project. Now the planned and projected induction.
(D) Final operational clearance is expected by Dec 2012.
(E) The real induction of the first 40 Tejas jets will begin only towards end 2013, and likely to be operational at Sulur airbase by 2015. The first 40 aircraft will be fitted with GE 404 engines.
(F) The first test flight of the Tejas MKII with more powerful GE 414 engines will be possible by Dec 2014.
(G) IAf is expected to receive an inventory of 200 aircraft totally as the initial contract (expectedly by 2015-16).
Even if these dates are sacropart and meticulously adhered to we can expect these aircraft with the IAF not earlier than 2018 or so. Even if we take very modest period of slippages and delays (beyond manufactures control) we can expect their full strength operational not earlier than 2020.
The shape of the IAF in 2015-2020
Post 1962, after Chinese debacle, govt. had approved for a force of 64 Sqn (nearly 1275 aircarft for the Air Force) including MR & SOW. The same was pegged down to 45 Sqn after Indo Pak conflict of 1965 (nearly 900 a/c). It was further reviewed and diluted to 39.5 Sqn (About 800 aircraft including MR & SOW)
We registered a maximum number up to of 700 front line combat aircraft (nearly 35-36 Sqn). Primary composition remained Mig-21 type of the air crafter in the similar series Mig 21’S have been depleting at a fast rate during the last 5-7 years on completion of their TTL (Total technical life) It would be fairly accurate to state we are down to less than 30 Sqn just about 500 + at the end of the 1st decade of the 21st century.
The IAF inventory as perceived during the 2nd decade i.e. 2015-2020 would be (including MR & SOW)
SU 30 272 by 2015 (inducted 12-15 years back)
Mig 21 Big 126
Mirages upgraded 50 (inducted 25 years back)
Jaguars 60 (inducted more than 30 years back)
MRCA 126 (To be inducted not earlier than 2015)
Mig-29 & Mig 27 100 (inducted more than 25 years back)
534
LCA 200
LCA 2015-2020 by that time 126 Mig Biz would have been out of service.
Some politicians and their chairborne analyst and commentators would have the following comments to offer.
(a) One Su-30 is capable of delivering the weapon load of one SQn of Mig-21.
(b) HAL would speed up the production line of LCA to produce about 40 aircraft per year.
(c) There is every possibility delay in induction of MRCA & LCA in the time frame envisaged.
(d) A gap of nearly 250 aircraft would remain during this decade.
The no of aircraft cannot be reduced dramatically with their enhanced lethality.
The capability of the HAL to produce 40 aircraft per year is highly sceptical: The experience of production of ALH is very recent.
How would LCA finally end up as a 3½ generation combat aircraft could only be assessed and proved on its induction?
IAF has to gear up from now only to fill a serious gap of 250 aircraft now and another 250 aircraft gap in the third decade 2021 to 2030. This gap of nos and technology advancement would always remain a night mare for the planners of the IAF.
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